Tonight:
Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday:
Sunny, with a high near 70. West wind 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday Night:
A chance of rain showers after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. West wind 0 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Friday:
A chance of rain showers before 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 66. West wind 0 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Friday Night:
Mostly clear, with a low around 43. Northwest wind 0 to 5 mph.
Saturday:
Sunny, with a high near 64.
Saturday Night:
Mostly clear, with a low around 40.
Sunday:
Mostly sunny, with a high near 65.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
709 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020
Weather Synopsis:
A cold front will continue to pull away from the region tonight. A
weak wave of low pressure will track offshore Thursday night into
Friday morning. High pressure will then build in for later Friday
and remain in place through the weekend. A coastal storm may form
nearby to the area by Sunday night and Monday before high pressure
builds back in by Tuesday.
Near Term:
UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING -
Forecast remains on track, so no significant changes will be
made to the database.
Quiet conditions on tap for tonight. Southwest winds diminish to
around 5 mph, and skies clear out. Overnight, however, a
weakening cold front will approach the area from the west. There
is fairly limited moisture and lift ahead of this front, so no
precipitation is expected, although an increase in cloud cover
is likely, especially for northeastern Pennsylvania and northern
New Jersey.
Short Term:
6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY -
The cold front will move across the area through the morning
hours and be offshore by midday. A dry forecast is expected
through the day as partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies are
expected. Thursday will be a few degrees warmer than Wednesday
and end up a few degrees above normal. Winds will also be less
than Wednesday as well, with few if any gusts through the day.
Long Term:
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY -
Overview...
Great Lakes troughing dominates the pattern into the coming weekend,
before a more zonal flow develops by early next week. We`ll see the
type of cool interlude that would be expected with a prevailing -
AO/+PNA regime for the late week and weekend period, but nothing far
from normal. A minor weather system affects the area Thursday night
into Friday before a stretch of high pressure and dry weather. The
only potential significant system of the period comes Sunday night
through Monday night in the form of a coastal low. However,
uncertainty is high regarding that system with more details below.
Overall, likely to be a fairly low impact stretch of weather with
few or no headlines, but will watch the possible system early next
week.
Dailies...
Thursday night-Friday... As a shortwave passes to our northwest, a
weak surface wave develops just offshore. The shortwave is fairly
vigorous, and jet dynamics are favorable for offshore low formation.
However, moisture is lacking, and the system will be fast moving. So
this looks to be a minor event. Added some low end likely PoPs along
and on either side of the urban corridor for Thursday night when
dynamics peak; some light rain is a decent bet, but expecting
rainfall totals mainly a tenth of an inch or less. The surface wave
pulls away by Friday morning, and much of Friday should actually be
pleasant with cool but drying conditions and developing sunshine.
Friday night-Sunday... Quiet and cool conditions for the weekend.
Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest, cresting
overhead Saturday night into Sunday. Highs mainly in the 60s. The
only potential for headlines will be with frost, especially Saturday
night when radiational cooling looks the best.
Sunday night-Monday night... Uncertainty increases here as we watch
for the possible development of a coastal low. A wide spread in
guidance with the GFS and EC completely opposite each other (might
as well get ready for winter early right?). Decent agreement on a
northern stream trough digging from the Midwest into the Ohio
Valley, though some questions on its amplitude. The bigger problem
is with the southern stream and the tropics, and whether the
northern stream trough can phase with a moisture-rich wave that may
be coming out of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Should the
systems remain separate, rainfall will be limited with maybe just
some showers associated with the northern stream system. Should the
systems phase, however, a stronger coastal low with more significant
rainfall would be possible. At this point, just too early and
uncertain to make a definitive call so capped PoPs at chc levels. If
pressed, would say I lean towards the drier GFS camp over the wetter
EC as I suspect that even if good phasing occurs it may be too far
north for our region to get into the heavier precipitation shield.
In addition, it is quite uncertain what type of system, if any, is
going to come out of the tropics. But plenty of time to watch and
cannot rule out a heavier rain event.
Tuesday-Wednesday... Most indications are for a dry and pleasant day
Tuesday behind the potential early week system. While confidence is
low, some early guidance suggests a warming trend and developing
southwest flow on Wednesday with a cold front potentially
approaching on that day.
Click for full NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion
