Rest Of Today:
Mostly cloudy late this morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers this afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s. Southwest winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight:
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows in the upper 40s. West winds around 5 mph, becoming north after midnight. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Monday:
Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 60s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
Monday Night:
Partly cloudy. A chance of showers in the evening. Lows in the lower 50s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tuesday:
Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Night:
Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 50s.
Wednesday:
Partly sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers. Highs around 70.
Wednesday Night:
Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 40s.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
918 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019
Weather Synopsis:
An upper level low pressure system will affect our weather today and
into Monday before weakening. Another disturbance will cross north
of the area Tuesday and cause a cold front to cross the area Tuesday
night. High pressure will move in for Wednesday and Thursday.
Another low and front will affect the weather for next Friday.
Near Term:
UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING -
For the 9 AM update, decreased the cloud cover grids by one
category into the late morning hours to represent current
conditions reported by surface observations and satellite
imagery...then blended into existing cloud cover grids for this
afternoon. With the upper level closed low right on top of the
region, considerable cloud cover still seems plausible this
afternoon. Rest of forecast still looks good with no other
changes. Prev discussion below...
The mid and upper level closed low remains over our
region for another day. Though there remains little reflection
of the low at the surface or in the boundary layer, the mid and
upper level low will likely be enough to keep considerable cloud
cover over the region, and limited coverage of showers through
the day. Many models show dry conditions through the day.
However, I changed the PoPs little from the previous forecast as
it looks like many models are bringing drier air into the low
levels too quickly. Given the weak southerly/southwesterly flow
through the day, this seems suspicious.
For temperatures, cloud cover will likely play a critical role for
today. If we see few breaks in the clouds, then highs are likely to
be in the 60s. If we see some breaks in the clouds, even for just a
few hours, then some areas could get well into the 70s. I suspect
the cloud cover will be persistent, so have stayed close to the
previous forecast, with highs mostly in the 60s to near 70 across
the region.
Short Term:
6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY -
The mid and upper level low will finally start to dig south and
east, away from our region. However, it will still be close enough
to the region to affect our weather for another night. Similar to
today, we could see persistent cloud cover and limited coverage of
rain showers. At the surface however, flow should switch to northerly,
which should help promote dry air advection. Therefore, any rain
will likely be very light.
Long Term:
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY -
Monday...The upper low and weakening sfc low move away, but still
close enough to produce chc for showers Monday. Mild, with highs in
the low 70s and lows mostly in the 50s.
Monday night/Tue...Mostly fair with above normal temperatures. High
pressure from the SE states extends across the Middle Atlantic
region.
Tue night thru Thu...Unsettled with a trough and sfc low/front
affecting the area Tue night/Wed. Several weak vort maxs cross the
area Wed/Thu. Chcs for showers thru the period. Temperatures mostly
normal or above.
Thu night/Friday...Another upper trough and sfc low affect the area.
Chances of showers thru the period. Higher chc with a cold front
scheduled to cross Friday.
Saturday...While it`s difficult to get too specific at this
period now, the GFS and EC both show high pressure building in
for Sat/Sun, so we`ll have a dry fcst for now. Temperatures will
be seasonable for late April with upper 60s/low 70s for highs
and lows in the 40s N/W and low 50s S/E.
Click for full NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion
