Overnight:
Mostly clear, with a low around 59. North wind around 5 mph.

Friday:
Sunny, with a high near 82. North wind between 5 and 8 mph.

Friday Night:
Mostly clear, with a low around 56. Light north wind.

Saturday:
Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph.

Saturday Night:
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Light southeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday:
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Sunday Night:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday Night:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday:
Partly sunny, with a high near 86.

Tuesday Night:
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67.

Wednesday:
Partly sunny, with a high near 88.

Wednesday Night:
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday:
Mostly sunny, with a high near 88.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
727 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2010

Weather Synopsis:
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND SETTLE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK.

Near Term:
Until 6 Am Friday Morning - LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MAINLY CSTL NJ, CSTL DE AND ALG THE ERN SHORE OF MD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT HAS DECREASED. THEREFORE, THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER AIR, MAKING FOR QUITE A COMFORTABLE NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. ANY LINGERING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY 9 PM IF NOT SOONER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S, WITH SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE POCONOS. THE DELMARVA MAY SEE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVERNIGHT.

Short Term:
6 Am Friday Morning Through Sunday - RELIEF FOR A FEW DAYS WILL USHER US INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER, WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES AROUND OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. WE HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S LOOK TO BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

Long Term:
Sunday Night Through Thursday - THE OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN COMPRISES OF TROUGHING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AS ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EJECTS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN HINTS OF THIS MAINTAINING ITS PRESENCE MONDAY. THE PATTERN ALMOST LOOKS TO BECOME AN OVERRUNNING/UPSLOPE REGIME AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM COMPLETELY LIFTING OUT, WHICH WILL IMPACT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. ONCE THIS FEATURE LIFTS OUT, WEAK RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN, THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES, THEREFORE THE COLD FRONT MAY GET HUNG UP IN OUR VICINITY THURSDAY. HPC WENT WITH A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF, ALTHOUGH MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE MULTI-CLUSTER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE SYSTEM THAT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME FRAME. BASED ON THE ABOVE, A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE SLIDING ACROSS THE DELMARVA AREA LATE SUNDAY THEN EXITING TO OUR EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY, THEN A WARM FRONT TAKES AIM ON OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES IN DURING WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN RIDGING DOWN TO THE SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE A SLOW MOVER. WE CARRIED CHC POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. WE WILL GO WITH JUST SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR NOW, BUT THIS COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD GIVEN THE LOOK OF THE TROUGH STRENGTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD. TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME POSSIBLE TIMING CHANGES, WE WILL TAPER THE POPS DOWN SOME MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. AN AREA OF WAA SETTING UP TO OUR WEST MAY BRING IN A CHC OF SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS TO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TUESDAY WELL AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. AS A COLD FRONT THEN GRADUALLY MOVES INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WE CARRIED SOME SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR NOW. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE, ALTHOUGH DID MAKE SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS. MONDAY WILL BE COOLER, HOWEVER THEN THE HEAT BEGINS TO BUILD ALTHOUGH NO EXCESSIVE HEAT IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

Click for full NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion