This Afternoon:
Periods of rain and a chance of thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 52. North wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Tonight:
Periods of rain and a chance of thunderstorms before 1am, then a chance of thunderstorms and a chance of rain between 1am and 5am, then a chance of rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 49. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Wednesday:
A chance of rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms before 8am, then a slight chance of thunderstorms and a slight chance of rain between 8am and 9am, then a chance of rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms between 9am and noon, then a slight chance of thunderstorms and a slight chance of rain between noon and 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 63. North wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night:
Patchy fog after 5am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 47. Northwest wind 0 to 5 mph.
Thursday:
Patchy fog before 8am. Sunny, with a high near 73. West wind 0 to 5 mph.
Thursday Night:
Patchy fog after 2am. Mostly clear, with a low around 51.
Friday:
Patchy fog before 8am. Sunny, with a high near 70.
Friday Night:
Mostly clear, with a low around 43.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
927 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022
Weather Synopsis:
Lingering coastal low pressure will continue to influence our
weather until it pushes off to the east Wednesday. High pressure
builds for Thursday before a cold front crosses the area Friday.
More high pressure with cool temperatures arrive for the
weekend.
Near Term:
THROUGH WEDNESDAY -
Forecast mainly on track. Some adjustments to QPF totals, as
rainfall amounts have been on the high side. With some more
persistent and heavier bands of rain, there could be some urban
and poor drainage type flooding issues cropping up into today
around the urban corridor.
For today, an additional piece of vorticity gets wrapped into
the stalled upper low this should actually help to strengthen
the low a bit and pull it back to the west. In addition, progged
soundings show there being some elevated instability working in
from the E/SE as well. The upshot of all this is that it will
be a rainy day region wide...even today in places like the
southern Poconos where it did not rain much on Monday. There
will be continue to be some periodic breaks in the precip but
also periods where the rain may fall heavier within any embedded
thunderstorms that may occur. This is what could result in some
localized urban flooding issues. It will also remain cool and
raw with N/NE winds gusting 20 to 30 mph inland and 30 to 40 mph
near the coast. And the temperatures will not rise too much as
they hold mostly in the 50s resulting the potential for record
low maxes (see climate section below) so not a very pleasant
day.
For tonight, conditions will not change too much as the low
remains stalled offshore resulting in periods of rain
continuing. It does look though like rain rates should be
lighter.
Even Wednesday now is looking to remain on the wet side,
especially near and S/E of the urban corridor. The good news is
that the low pressure system will be finally be starting to
weaken and pull away bringing a gradual end to precip from NW to
SE...ending first in places like the Leigh Valley into the
southern Poconos but potentially not until late day near and S/E
of the urban corridor. Our forecast high temps for Wednesday
are a few degrees warmer than Tuesday but still quite cool with
highs mostly in the 50s.
In terms of total additional rain amounts from this point forward, a
widespread 1-2 inches is likely with locally higher amounts
possible. The heaviest of this additional rain should be through the
day today.
Short Term:
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT -
The end of the wet weather commences later Wed as the upper low
finally pushes east and out to sea. Showers will end across the
coastal areas of NJ/DE during the evening and clouds will decrease
overnight. The rest of Thu and Thu night will be fair with mostly
clear skies. Fog will likely develop Wed night and Thu night with
the moist ground and mostly clear skies. We have included the fog in
the grids for the fcst with confid in it occuring good. Highs Thu will
be seasonable with upper 60s (N/W) and low to mid 70s elsewhere.
Overnight lows will mostly be in the 40s Wed night and low/mid 50s
for Thu night.
Long Term:
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY -
The dry pattern that begins during the short term continues into the
weekend. An upper trough across the Northeast states and Middle
Atlantic flattens and is replaced with more zonal from by late
weekend. A short wave will move through early next week. The only
surface feature of significance will be a cold front which will move
across the area Fri night.
The forecast is dry through the period. High pressure will prevail
with only a cold front moving though late Friday. I have kept the
slight chance of showers (from the earlier forecast) in for the
southern Poconos and northern NJ for Fri night. Temperatures will be
a little above normal Friday but after that, a turn towards chilly
autumn temperatures is expected. Highs over the weekend will be
largely be in the upper 50s/low 60s for our region. Overnight lows
will be mostly in the 40s but 30s for the southern Poconos and
northern NJ. A bout of early season front possible for the southern
Poconos if the present lows remain.
Climate:
Record cool maximum temperatures are possible today .
Site Today
PHL 55/2010
ILG 53/2010
ABE 52/2010
ACY 55/1987
TTN 52/1998
RDG 51/1974
GED 50/1974
MPO 45/2003
55N 45/1912
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