Overnight:
Mostly clear, with a low around 61. North wind around 5 mph.
Saturday:
Sunny, with a high near 88. North wind around 5 mph.
Saturday Night:
Mostly clear, with a low around 61. West wind around 5 mph.
Sunday:
Sunny, with a high near 89. Northwest wind 0 to 5 mph.
Sunday Night:
Mostly clear, with a low around 66. Southwest wind around 0 mph.
Monday:
Mostly sunny, with a high near 88.
Monday Night:
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69.
Tuesday:
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
335 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024
Weather Synopsis:
High pressure will be in firm control through the weekend resulting
in tranquil and comfortable conditions. High pressure will slide
offshore on Monday as a cut-off low meanders around southern New
England. Another low pressure system lifts north of the region on
Wednesday with several weak fronts passing through the area through
the end of the week.
Near Term:
THROUGH TONIGHT -
High pressure is centered over the eastern Great Lakes early
this morning, and will generally stay put through tonight.
Aloft, a shortwave is currently overhead and looks to gradually
develop into a closed low off the coast by this time tomorrow,
but other than a wind shift from northwesterly to northeasterly,
not expecting that system to have any impact on our weather
through tonight. With that shortwave passing offshore, we should
be mostly rid of the mid and high clouds which much of the
region saw on Friday, so skies should generally be bluer today
than they were yesterday, other than perhaps a little haze from
some western wildfire smoke. We will likely see another build-
up of cumulus this afternoon like we saw on Friday, but nothing
should come of it. With dew points remaining mostly in the 50s
again, though a touch higher than yesterday, and air temps
nudging a bit warmer as well, but still not far from normal with
mid-upper 80s for most, it will be a classic beautiful summer
day overall.
Tonight will be dry and clear to partly cloudy. Dew points will
creep up a little as winds shift a bit more onshore with the
aforementioned low starting to develop off the coast, but the
effect through late tonight should be minimal. Lows again in the
upper 50s to 60s throughout the region.
Short Term:
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT -
The positively tilted trough over our region today is expected to
stall over the northwest Atlantic and cut-off in the upper flow by
Sunday morning. The low will gradually deepen allowing a surface low
to develop and retrograde to the northwest back over southern New
England. The biggest change to the forecast is that almost all
global and short-range guidance now keeps the surface low in the
vicinity of Cape Cod. So while guidance has shifted back to the
east, have mostly lessened cloud cover and capped precipitation
chances to around 15-20% on Monday.
Overall, the short term period will be quite tranquil aside for the
retrograding low to our northeast. Sunday will be dry areawide with
just some high clouds fanning west from the cut-off low. Monday will
feature more clouds than Sunday with the best chance of a shower or
storm over northeastern PA and NJ. High temps will be in the 80s on
Sunday, with slightly cooler temps on Monday due to more in the way
of clouds. Lows will range in the mid 60s to low 70s both nights.
Long Term:
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY -
By Tuesday, the cut-off low aloft will be shunted northeast into
maritime Canada as the next main weather features approaches. This
next feature is yet another upper trough approaching from the north
and west around mid-week. This may have a more widespread impact
across our region. At the surface, broad high pressure will remain
offshore for much of the week as the surface low tracks through
interior Canada. Although the initial cold front does not look to
cross through the area until Wednesday into Wednesday night, showers
and storms will be possible beginning on Tuesday. This convection
will mostly be diurnally driven, so the greatest chance for showers
and storms will come during the afternoon and evening hours. Should
dry out briefly on Thursday behind the front, but the pattern aloft
is quite active. So as one wave passes, another one is right on its
heels. This ultimately may cause another round of showers and storms
to occur Thursday into Friday.
Temps on Tuesday and Wednesday will be a few degrees below normal
while Thursday and Friday look to be few degrees above normal.
Overall, an increase in moisture advection and the return of some
humid weather is expected for the long term period. Heat headlines
may be needed towards the end of the week.
Click for full NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion
