This Afternoon:
Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 52. East wind 10 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Tonight:
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. South wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Sunday:
Sunny, with a high near 60. West wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.
Sunday Night:
Mostly clear, with a low around 37. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Monday:
Rain likely after 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 56. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Monday Night:
Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tuesday:
Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday Night:
Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
942 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023
Weather Synopsis:
Low pressure will pass to our northwest later today and tonight
as a warm front attempts to lift northward across the region
before a cold/occluded front sweeps thru the region tonight.
High pressure briefly builds in for Sunday. Another low pressure
system may bring rain back to the region by later in the day
Monday, possibly lingering into Tuesday. High pressure then
likely returns later in the week.
Near Term:
THROUGH TONIGHT -
High pressure will shift offshore to our northeast this morning
as surface low pressure intensifies and lifts into the Great
Lakes region. The low will be associated with a potent mid-level
trough which will shift offshore tonight. The surface low will
be occluding later today as a warm front lifts into the Delmarva
region, where it will likely stall out. A secondary surface low
could develop within the vicinity of the frontal boundary later
today before moving offshore. Later tonight, a cold front will
eventually cross the area and move offshore.
As of mid morning, the freezing rain that was occuring at Mount
Pocono has changed over to just some light rain as temperatures
have risen above freezing. Otherwise, much of the area in a
lull at this time but the main band of light to occasionally
moderate rain is quickly approaching as it moves eastward across
PA and is right now on the doorstep of our western most
counties. This will give just about all locals across the CWA a
period of rainfall lasting 2-3 hours late this morning through
early this afternoon. The rain should be diminishing and moving
to our northeast by mid to late afternoon. Daytime rainfall
amounts should range from about a tenth of an inch across the
southern zones to around a quarter to half inch elsewhere.
Easterly winds will increase to around 15-25 mph by later this
morning. Some stronger gusts of 35-40 mph are possible across
the higher terrain of eastern Pennsylvania and northwest New
Jersey and along the New Jersey coast. Temperatures will climb
into the 40s and 50s across much of the area with some 60s
getting into Delmarva south of the warm front.
As a surface low occludes to our northwest later today, warm,
moist advection will continue into this evening ahead of the
approaching cold front. At least some elevated instability in
the neighborhood of 500-1,000 J/kg is expected to develop. This
will be the result of colder mid-level air arriving ahead of the
cold front. This should result in some scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing after the main initial round of precip
slides northeast of the area. While severe thunderstorms are not
expected, the mid-level cooling will probably result in lapse
rates sufficient for hail production with any of the more robust
cells that develop. Would not be surprised to see some hail
reports of half inch diameter or larger if some better
organization of convection occurs. The remnant convection should
clear out of the area by midnight or so as the front crosses
the area and moves offshore, then a quiet overnight is expected
with temperatures remaining in the 40s to low 50s under clearing
skies.
Short Term:
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT -
Confidence in the short-term period has grown somewhat
particularly regarding the system on Monday. However, we remain
highly confident that Sunday will be the nicest day of the
forecast period, albeit rather breezy. By Sunday morning, the
low pressure system from today will be into Quebec with a
secondary near the coast of Maine. Northwest flow will be a bit
brisk, but the air mass is not cold behind the system... in
fact, the combination of sun and downslope flow with better
mixing should result in most of the region having a warmer day
Sunday than today, with highs near or above 60 for most. That
said, the gusty west to northwest wind will keep it from feeling
particularly warm, with gust of 20-25 mph likely especially in
the morning.
High pressure pushes overhead Sunday night, with light winds.
However, the next system will be gathering moisture to our
southwest already, which may mean clouds already starting to
build across the region. Thus, not an ideal radiational night,
with lows in the 30s to 40s.
Most guidance is now in overall agreement that low pressure will
track into the Ohio Valley before redeveloping along the coast
Monday into Monday night. This is now looking more likely to
bring a period of rain to the region for later Monday and Monday
night. Given prior forecast uncertainty, did not go all in with
likely to categorical POPs everywhere, but definitely trended
upward significantly, with high end chance to low-end likelies
across the region. All that having been said, this still doesn`t
look like a particularly robust system, with relatively light
QPF amounts of less than a half inch, and possibly a little wet
snow on the tail end in the Poconos. The system`s arrival will
hold highs into the 50s for Monday however, and hold lows up to
near 40 for most Monday night, though near freezing in the
Poconos.
Long Term:
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY -
Broad trough with passing disturbances will result in a cooler
than normal pattern to close out March, though right now
confidence in any particularly stormy day beyond Monday is low.
Potential for the Monday system to linger, or for another low
pressure to develop quickly behind it with another passing
disturbance, keeps POPS well into the chance to low end likely
range for Tuesday, though there remains much uncertainty here.
Confidence increases later Wednesday into Thursday when high
pressure builds in. There appears to be another passing cold
front in the Thursday time frame, but forcing stays north and it
looks more likely to be dry, with high pressure remaining for
Friday. As mentioned, temperatures look to be on the minus side
of normal, though not overly cold, and lows will be chilly in
the 30s but still mostly above freezing unless we happen to
managed a clear night with light winds, which would seem most
likely Thursday night should it happen.
Click for full NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion