This Afternoon:
Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 52. East wind 10 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Tonight:
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. South wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Sunday:
Sunny, with a high near 60. West wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.

Sunday Night:
Mostly clear, with a low around 37. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Monday:
Rain likely after 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 56. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Monday Night:
Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tuesday:
Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday Night:
Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Extended Forecast

Wednesday Chance Light Rain then Sunny	Wednesday Night Partly Cloudy	Thursday Partly Sunny	Thursday Night Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Light Rain	Friday Chance Light Rain	Friday Night Light Rain Likely
Hi 51 °F	Lo 33 °F	Hi 53 °F	Lo 36 °F	Hi 55 °F	Lo 43 °F
PoP 30%				PoP 40%	PoP 60%

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
942 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

Weather Synopsis:
Low pressure will pass to our northwest later today and tonight as a warm front attempts to lift northward across the region before a cold/occluded front sweeps thru the region tonight. High pressure briefly builds in for Sunday. Another low pressure system may bring rain back to the region by later in the day Monday, possibly lingering into Tuesday. High pressure then likely returns later in the week.

Near Term:
THROUGH TONIGHT - High pressure will shift offshore to our northeast this morning as surface low pressure intensifies and lifts into the Great Lakes region. The low will be associated with a potent mid-level trough which will shift offshore tonight. The surface low will be occluding later today as a warm front lifts into the Delmarva region, where it will likely stall out. A secondary surface low could develop within the vicinity of the frontal boundary later today before moving offshore. Later tonight, a cold front will eventually cross the area and move offshore.

As of mid morning, the freezing rain that was occuring at Mount Pocono has changed over to just some light rain as temperatures have risen above freezing. Otherwise, much of the area in a lull at this time but the main band of light to occasionally moderate rain is quickly approaching as it moves eastward across PA and is right now on the doorstep of our western most counties. This will give just about all locals across the CWA a period of rainfall lasting 2-3 hours late this morning through early this afternoon. The rain should be diminishing and moving to our northeast by mid to late afternoon. Daytime rainfall amounts should range from about a tenth of an inch across the southern zones to around a quarter to half inch elsewhere.

Easterly winds will increase to around 15-25 mph by later this morning. Some stronger gusts of 35-40 mph are possible across the higher terrain of eastern Pennsylvania and northwest New Jersey and along the New Jersey coast. Temperatures will climb into the 40s and 50s across much of the area with some 60s getting into Delmarva south of the warm front.

As a surface low occludes to our northwest later today, warm, moist advection will continue into this evening ahead of the approaching cold front. At least some elevated instability in the neighborhood of 500-1,000 J/kg is expected to develop. This will be the result of colder mid-level air arriving ahead of the cold front. This should result in some scattered showers and thunderstorms developing after the main initial round of precip slides northeast of the area. While severe thunderstorms are not expected, the mid-level cooling will probably result in lapse rates sufficient for hail production with any of the more robust cells that develop. Would not be surprised to see some hail reports of half inch diameter or larger if some better organization of convection occurs. The remnant convection should clear out of the area by midnight or so as the front crosses the area and moves offshore, then a quiet overnight is expected with temperatures remaining in the 40s to low 50s under clearing skies.

Short Term:
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT - Confidence in the short-term period has grown somewhat particularly regarding the system on Monday. However, we remain highly confident that Sunday will be the nicest day of the forecast period, albeit rather breezy. By Sunday morning, the low pressure system from today will be into Quebec with a secondary near the coast of Maine. Northwest flow will be a bit brisk, but the air mass is not cold behind the system... in fact, the combination of sun and downslope flow with better mixing should result in most of the region having a warmer day Sunday than today, with highs near or above 60 for most. That said, the gusty west to northwest wind will keep it from feeling particularly warm, with gust of 20-25 mph likely especially in the morning.

High pressure pushes overhead Sunday night, with light winds. However, the next system will be gathering moisture to our southwest already, which may mean clouds already starting to build across the region. Thus, not an ideal radiational night, with lows in the 30s to 40s.

Most guidance is now in overall agreement that low pressure will track into the Ohio Valley before redeveloping along the coast Monday into Monday night. This is now looking more likely to bring a period of rain to the region for later Monday and Monday night. Given prior forecast uncertainty, did not go all in with likely to categorical POPs everywhere, but definitely trended upward significantly, with high end chance to low-end likelies across the region. All that having been said, this still doesn`t look like a particularly robust system, with relatively light QPF amounts of less than a half inch, and possibly a little wet snow on the tail end in the Poconos. The system`s arrival will hold highs into the 50s for Monday however, and hold lows up to near 40 for most Monday night, though near freezing in the Poconos.

Long Term:
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY - Broad trough with passing disturbances will result in a cooler than normal pattern to close out March, though right now confidence in any particularly stormy day beyond Monday is low. Potential for the Monday system to linger, or for another low pressure to develop quickly behind it with another passing disturbance, keeps POPS well into the chance to low end likely range for Tuesday, though there remains much uncertainty here. Confidence increases later Wednesday into Thursday when high pressure builds in. There appears to be another passing cold front in the Thursday time frame, but forcing stays north and it looks more likely to be dry, with high pressure remaining for Friday. As mentioned, temperatures look to be on the minus side of normal, though not overly cold, and lows will be chilly in the 30s but still mostly above freezing unless we happen to managed a clear night with light winds, which would seem most likely Thursday night should it happen.

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