Tonight:
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. East winds 5 to 10 mph.
Friday:
Rain, windy with highs in the lower 50s. East winds 10 to 15 mph, increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Friday Night:
Rain, breezy. Near steady temperature in the lower 50s. East winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Saturday:
Rain likely. Highs around 60. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Saturday Night:
Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the evening. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows around 50. South winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Sunday:
Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s.
Sunday Night:
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s.
Monday:
Sunny. Highs in the upper 50s.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
416 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021
Weather Synopsis:
High pressure will continue to move off the north and east as low
pressure moves towards our region out of the Tennessee River Valleys
and affects our region Friday and Saturday. The low will move north
and east out of the region Sunday with high pressure gradually
building eastward out of the center portion of the country into next
week. A cold front looks to push southward across the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday.
Near Term:
THROUGH TONIGHT -
Dry weather continues today as we sit in between weather
systems. High pressure to the north will continue to pull north
and east away from the region as the next area of low pressure
moves across the Tennessee Valley towards the Mid-Atlantic.
Light easterly winds with highs in the low 60s this afternoon.
Lows tonight will be similar to last night in the low 40s north
to low 50s south into the Delmarva Peninsula.
Short Term:
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT -
A complex weather system as we end the workweek continues to
take shape as a closed 500 mb low moves out of the central CONUS
onto the East Coast. With the surface low moving up the western
spine of the Appalachians, this pushes an occluded front
through much of our region.
Hydro continues to remain a concern, albeit somewhat lesser of a
concern if you`re looking for a silver lining. Guidance continues
to elongate the trough as it remerges with the parent flow to the
north, with cyclogenesis mostly occuring to our south and west. The
main concern is the antecedent conditions following the recent
nor`easter, especially across northern and central New Jersey. Decided
not to issue a Flood Watch at this point given the recent lower QPF
trend, which has been noted with WPC as well. Currently closer to
1-2" is forecast with the higher amounts looking less likely than
previous runs. Still, flash flood guidance across these areas is
less than 2 inches for a 12-hour period and we could easily see these
rainfall amounts locally. River flooding is likely to be the main
concern anyways, and response time in the Raritan and Passaic basins
won`t go into flood until Saturday, so we have time to tune out the
finer details. Definitely need to keep watch on this as river flooding
is likely across these basins, but just how bad remains uncertain.
Wind: The low level jet (50-60 kt) will move through the region
Friday afternoon and evening and with good momentum transport we
have increased confidence that there will be some higher winds
across Delmarva and extreme southeastern New Jersey. Model soundings
show the strong winds mixing down further inland than previously
thought and we have expanded the Wind Advisory to include our
eastern shore of Maryland, where there are concerns for the more
exposed areas along the Chesapeake Bay. Additionally, there is a
period of time during Friday afternoon that winds of 45-55 mph may
mix down to the surface along the immediate coast of Delaware and
Cape May, New Jersey and we have issued a High Wind Warning for
those two zones.
To make matters more complicated, there is the potential for
some severe weather Friday morning across portions of Delmarva
with the risk advancing northward with the front through the
afternoon. It will definitely bear monitoring over the next
12-24 hours.
The system starts to wind down as we head into Saturday and things
should start to dry out from southwest to northeast later in the
day, with rain possible through much of the day as the low starts to
track to the north and east. The strong east winds will slacken off
and become more southwesterly through the day. Don`t fully expect
the skies to clear but would not be surprised to see peeks of sun,
moreso over southern areas.
Long Term:
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY -
Moving into the long-term a period of generally quiet weather is
anticipated. The low pressure system from the weekend continues to
move away from the area with the H5 trough moving through near the
beginning of the period. The GFS and EC differ on the timing, but
both of these have the trough well off the coast by 00Z Monday with
the associated low pressure center well into Canada. High
temperatures on Sunday look to be a couple of notches lower than on
Saturday across the CWA. Later Sunday into Monday features mainly a
zonal flow with winds shifting around to the southwest a bit as the
next cold front starts to move southward. This cold front is
projected to move through much of the area later in the day Monday,
but at this point the precipitation potential looks pretty limited.
The EC has the front getting right about to the Mason-Dixon Line by
00Z Tuesday, but the GFS has a slower progression. Northern areas
have the best potential to get any precipitation into Tuesday, but
POP remains under 20 there. Behind this front, expect CAA
starting later Monday. By Tuesday, expect high temperatures
ranging from the middle 60s in the southern portions of Delaware
and a couple of degrees within 60 along and near the I-95
corridor. Temperatures in the Poconos may struggle to reach 50
on Tuesday. Wednesday continues the push of cooler air with high
temperatures dropping another 2-4 degrees from Tuesday.
Click for full NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion
