This Afternoon:
Mostly sunny, with a high near 36. West wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph.

Tonight:
Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. West wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.

Friday:
Sunny, with a high near 34. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Friday Night:
Mostly clear, with a low around 24. West wind around 10 mph.

Saturday:
Mostly sunny, with a high near 37. West wind 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday Night:
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26.

Sunday:
Mostly sunny, with a high near 48.

Sunday Night:
A chance of rain showers after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Extended Forecast

Monday Rain Showers	Monday Night Rain Showers	Tuesday Rain Showers Likely	Tuesday Night Rain Showers Likely	Wednesday Chance Rain Showers	Wednesday Night Chance Rain Showers
Hi 50 °F	Lo 43 °F	Hi 56 °F	Lo 41 °F	Hi 50 °F	Lo 33 °F
PoP 80%	PoP 50%	PoP 60%	PoP 60%	PoP 40%	PoP 30%

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1235 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2024

Weather Synopsis:
Deepening low pressure will track to our north through today as a strong cold front sweeps across our area this morning. Cold and dry high pressure will then build to our west on Friday and remain situated to our south through the weekend. Several low pressure systems then look to take aim at the area through the middle of next week.

Near Term:
THROUGH TONIGHT - As of 1220pm... High res guidance suggests additional rounds of snow squalls may be possible through early this afternoon across northeastern PA, including the Pocono Plateau, and northwestern NJ, mainly for the higher elevations.

Previous discussion...In the wake of the cold front is when we expect the winds to really pick up. A Wind Advisory remaining in effect area wide until 10PM. Generally expect west winds 25 to 35 gusting 45 up to 55 mph with the strongest winds occuring during the late morning through the afternoon timeframe. Some tree damage along with scattered power outages will be possible. Expect rain/snow showers to wind down behind the front except over the southern Poconos where there will be a continuing chance for snow showers and snow squalls through the early afternoon with additional lighter snow showers later in the day. In terms of any snow accumulation, a dusting up to a half inch or so will be possible for most areas N/W of the urban corridor with upwards of 1 to 3 inches possible over the southern Poconos. Near and south/east of the I-95 corridor, any snow accumulation should be limited to a patchy light coating on grassy surfaces, if any at all. Following early morning highs generally ranging from the mid 30s to low 40s, temperatures will actually start to fall through the late morning and afternoon due to the strong cold advection in the wake of the cold front. By sunset, generally expect temperatures in the low to mid 30s with it feeling a good 10 degrees colder than this due to the wind chill.

For tonight, deep low pressure will be moving away from the area as it moves north and east through Atlantic Canada while high pressure builds south and east into the Ohio Valley. The loss of daytime heating will help some to reduce the wind/wind gusts however the pressure gradient will remain fairly strong so this will keep winds brisk right through much of the night. By the overnight, WNW winds should generally be around 15 mph with still some gusts of 20 to 30 mph. This will help keep temperatures warmer than they otherwise would have been despite the very cold airmass continuing to advect in (850 mph temperatures below -10C!). By Friday morning, generally expect lows in the mid to upper 20s except upper teens to low 20s over the southern Poconos and NW NJ.

Short Term:
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY - Skies will be mostly clear and conditions will be dry for the majority of the area, except for the Poconos which may have some lingering cloud cover and a chance for snow showers. Any additional accumulation will be insignificant, however.

For Friday and Saturday, high pressure over the Mississippi River Valley will slowly begin to translate east toward the Southeast US. We`ll likely have one more breezy day though on Friday as the pressure gradient will remain elevated across the Mid-Atlantic. Wind gusts are expected to be in the 30-40 mph range as model soundings suggest that we`ll mix up to around 850mb yet again. Fortunately by Friday night, the pressure gradient will weaken, so winds will be more tame into Saturday. Otherwise, Friday into Saturday will feature mostly clear skies except for a few passing clouds on Friday night. It is possible some lake enhanced convective snow showers to stream into the Poconos on Friday night as some shortwave energy passes by, but the RH in the DGZ air may be too dry for much in the way of ice crystal development, so I`ve stayed with the previous forecast and left any such showers out of the forecast at this time.

Long Term:
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - High pressure off to our south will then control our weather through Sunday night as the weather pattern begins to moderate. Fair weather conditions are anticipated as warm air advection brings temperatures back to seasonable levels.

The next system that will bring active weather to the region should be in the early to middle portions of next week as forecast guidance suggests that a digging upper level trough will bring precip to the region. The upper level through should start with another surface system that is poised to cut up through the Great Lakes region on Monday with a trailing cold front approaching from the west. This will likely bring periods of light to moderate rain to the region beginning late on Monday.

Beyond Monday, model guidance remains fairly diverse in the potential solution. The majority of ensemble guidance suggest that the front will weaken as it approaches and eventually stall. Depending on where the front stalls out, will determine what happens for the middle portion of the week if the front stalls to the west we`ll see more prolonged periods of rain however if the front ends up clearing the region and stalls offshore it will result in wetter conditions toward the coast, and drier conditions north and west. Either way the consensus of guidance and ensembles is that warmer temperatures are on the way back with the 850/925/sfc 0C lines well to our north, so the precip type will be rain.

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