Overnight:
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Wednesday:
Sunny, with a high near 43. Northwest wind 5 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Wednesday Night:
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. South wind 0 to 5 mph.
Christmas Day:
A slight chance of rain and snow between 7am and 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 46. West wind 0 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Thursday Night:
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. North wind 5 to 10 mph.
Friday:
A slight chance of snow between 7am and 1pm, then snow likely and a slight chance of sleet and a slight chance of freezing rain between 1pm and 4pm, then snow likely and freezing rain likely and a chance of sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Little or no ice accumulation expected.
Friday Night:
Snow and freezing rain and a chance of sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. New ice accumulation of less than half an inch possible.
Saturday:
Snow likely and freezing rain likely before 1pm, then a slight chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than half an inch possible. Little or no ice accumulation expected.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
419 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025
Weather Synopsis:
Weak high pressure will build into the region through tonight
before sliding offshore. A weak clipper system will slide
quickly through the area on Christmas Day, then high pressure
will build again into Friday morning. A low pressure system will
bring widespread wintry precipitation to the region late Friday
through Friday night. Another system will impact the region
late Sunday, followed by cold and dry high pressure into early
next week.
Near Term:
THROUGH TONIGHT -
Drying out today with breezy northwest winds into the
afternoon. Seasonable temperatures expected.
Guidance continues to indicate potential for wind gusts near
40-50 mph across the Pocono Plateau and higher elevations of
northwest New Jersey developing through this morning. This will
be due to strong low level winds developing beneath an inversion
and the Bernoulli effect accelerating winds across the ridge
lines and mountain peaks, and significant wind gusts are not
expected outside of these areas. A Wind Advisory remains in
effect for Carbon and Monroe Counties through 1 PM today.
Elsewhere, gusts around 25-35 mph are forecast. The winds will
diminish through the afternoon, and become calm tonight.
Short Term:
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY -
Mostly cloudy, but seasonable for Christmas Day with a chance
of sprinkles or flurries early. A winter storm is expected to
impact the region with widespread wintry precipitation starting
Friday into Friday night, however exact amounts and
precipitation types remain uncertain. Light wintry precipitation
could lingering into Saturday morning.
For Christmas Day: not great weather, but not bad either for
late December. A weak mid level shortwave trough will pass
through during the morning hours, which could produce some brief
sprinkles or flurries south of I-78. There`s only a 20-30%
chance of measurable precip, so most places will probably remain
dry. Skies will be mostly cloudy through the day, but
temperatures will be near normal with highs in the 40s for most.
Southwest winds 5-10 mph shifting northwest in the afternoon as
a cold front passes through.
For Christmas night: The cold front will usher in a colder and
drier airmass. Temperatures are expected to fall into the 10s
near and north of I-78, and into the low to mid 20s south of
I-78 by Friday morning. Skies will be partly cloudy. Winds
relatively light, so wind chill won`t be much of a factor.
For the Friday through Friday night winter storm: Bottom line
up front - We are near 100% confident that most of our area will
receive wintry precipitation of some variety, save for our
southern Delmarva zones. The biggest question marks remains the
QPF and precipitation type forecast. Thus, the exact amount of
snow, sleet, and ice that any given location will receive
remains uncertain at this time. Folks with travel plans from
Friday afternoon through Friday night should expect impacts to
their plans, as road conditions will likely deteriorate during
this time with snowy and/or icy roads. Meteorological forecast
details follow below.
An unusual and thus very challenging meteorological forecast
setup for the Friday through Friday night winter storm. A polar
jet ridge will be building into eastern Canada, which will
provide low level cold, dry air from Canadian high pressure
needed for wintry precipitation in our region. Meanwhile, a
subtropical trough will attempt to amplify as it slides just to
our southwest Friday night. This will push a low pressure system
from the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley region Friday
across the Appalachians Friday night and offshore of the Mid
Atlantic coast by Saturday morning. This setup will result in
widespread precipitation for our region (near 100% chance).
Temperatures will likely be near to well below freezing across
the area Friday night, which will support accumulating wintry
precipitation.
A warm nose around 750 mb will push eastward into the area from
the west as precipitation spreads into the region around midday
Friday or Friday afternoon, with its 0C+ temperatures reaching
as far east as the Lehigh Valley, Philly metro, and southern New
Jersey. East of this line (northern and central NJ),
precipitation will likely remain all or mostly all snow. Near
and west of this line may experience some snow initially on
Friday before changing to sleet, or perhaps some freezing rain
or plain rain depending on surface temperatures and timing. For
precipitation type along and west of this line, it appears sleet
will be most favorable for much of the event, as the melting
layer will be quite high in the atmosphere and have plenty of
well below freezing air and time to refreeze into sleet before
reaching the ground. Some freezing rain is certainly possible
for far western areas in the CWA (SE PA, Philly proper, northern
Delmarva), especially later in the event when low level
temperatures (850-925 mb) warm closer to or above freezing.
As for our current deterministic forecast totals, we stuck
closely with the NBM as uncertainty remains very high on the
exact amounts. QPF amounts range from around 0.5-0.75" in most
areas. Snowfall totals range from 1-3" in northern Delmarva, far
southern NJ, and SE PA to 4-7" in eastern PA and much of NJ.
These totals could end up lower in the transition zone (where
ever that ends up) and areas that experience mostly sleet. It`s
possible some areas get 1-2"+ of pure sleet. Ice amounts are as
much as 0.1-0.25" in portions of SE PA, but these could be too
high if mostly sleet occurs.
Probabilistic amounts likely paint a better picture at this
stage in the forecast. The chance of plowable snow/sleet (2" or
more) is around 50-70% for northern DE, far southern NJ, and
west of I-476 in PA. Elsewhere to the north and east (where
precip is likely all snow), probabilities increase substantially
to around 70-90%. The probability of 5" or more is around
60-70% from Burlington County and north in NJ and adjacent
counties in PA, then drop off precipitously as you go west and
south from there. The probability of 0.10" of ice or more is
around 30-60% in SE PA and northern DE.
So to make this long AFD short, there is nearly a 100% chance
of wintry precipitation that will likely cause travel issues
beginning during the day Friday through Friday night, and
potentially lingering into Saturday morning. A Winter Storm
Watch was considered with this update, but the probability of
warning level snow is not large enough in coverage at this point
for one. Watches may need to be considered in future updates
though.
Long Term:
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY -
The late Saturday and Saturday night period will be in between
systems. A slight chance of precipitation possible, but nothing
significant. Mostly cloudy skies and seasonable temperatures.
For late Sunday through early Monday, a much more mild and
mostly wet system is anticipated to impact the region with
widespread rainfall. Details remain unclear, but should be a
mostly beneficial rainfall will potential for some light wintry
precip during precip onset. Temperatures near normal
Monday will be a post frontal day with breezy and colder
conditions as Canadian high pressure builds into the area. Wind
gusts over 40 mph possible. Wind chills in the single digits
Monday night.
Colder and remaining blustery on Tuesday with highs near to
below freezing for most. Lows in the 10s to low 20s.
Click for full NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion
